A. BACKGROUND 

Mongolia has received a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (SFFSP). The objective of the SFFS Project is to contribute to the Government of Mongolia’s efforts to strengthen fiscal and financial stability and improve the quality of expenditure. The project is designed into five components: (A) Strengthening Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management; (B) Improving the Efficiency of Public Financial Management; (C) Enhancing Financial Sector Stability; (D) Strengthening the Social Protection System; (E) Project Management and Monitoring. For more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. PAD2269.

Sub-component A.2 aims at “Strengthening fiscal policy and planning” by improving the existing legal framework through reviewing the related fiscal laws and including new fiscal relations to address the inconsistencies in tax laws, introduce international best practices in the tax laws such as transfer pricing and base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS), and build comprehensive revenue forecasting and financial models for economic analysis of large-scale mega projects. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) is responsible for the implementation of the Sub-component A.2 of the SFFS project. 

In recent years, the budget revenue performance has become dependent on mineral commodity cycles which are difficult to predict. The Government of Mongolia took measures to mitigate the potential risk of volatility in revenue performance by approving the Fiscal Stability Law in which the commodity prices are projected by using structural approach based on multi-year average price. The MOF has built several models to estimate the revenue performance of key taxes which are more prone to the changes in commodity prices such as mining royalties, corporate income tax and value-added tax under various commodity prices and other economic indicators. 

In the coming years, the revenue performance will be likely even more dependent on the mineral commodity cycles as Mongolia experienced more investment in the mining industry. Hence, it is important for the MOF to take steps to revise the existing revenue models and create more integrated and flexible model that is capable of improving the accuracy of revenue estimates.     

The significant steps have already been taken in this direction. The database for macroeconomic indicators and commodity price series as well as the corresponding revenue performances has been developed in line with the recent economic classification system. The technical data series of large-scale mining projects have been populated and the accurate and flexible model for the revenue management has been developed under the Sub-Component A2 of the SFFS project’s FY 2018. 

Since the tax reform will be implemented from 2020, the revenue forecasting models’ improvements reflecting the tax policy and compliance changes are essential for during the implementation period of the tax package laws. Hence, considering the importance of the assignment and to support the implementation of revenue forecasting models in line with the tax reform, the MOF urgently needs to hire a consultant for at least twelve (12) months period under the Sub-component A.2 of the SFFSP.

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT 

The objective of the assignment is to (i) strengthen existing revenue forecasting models in line with the new tax environment; (ii) develop revenue performance analysis reflecting policy and compliance changes and macroeconomic situations; (iii) assist the MOF team to analyze and estimate the budget implication of the tax reform; and (ii) to assist and to cooperate with officers, international and local consultants of the Fiscal Policy and Planning Department (FPPD) of the MOF to make a further improvement of the existing revenue forecasting models as well as to ensure its implementation.

C. SCOPE OF WORK

Key responsibilities under this assignment will include the following tasks, but not limited to:

   1. To review and improve the existing revenue forecasting models in major revenue items such as Corporate income tax, Value added tax, Personal income tax, Customs duties etc and produce new forecasting models if required;

   2. To prepare manuals of revenue forecasting models for end-users;

   3. To develop revenue performance analysis templates and guidelines reflecting the impacts of tax policy changes, measures for improving taxpayers’ compliance and macroeconomic situations;

   4. To carry out analysis on fiscal ramification of the tax reform based on actual tax data and distinguishing the impacts from different factors such as tax policy changes, taxpayers compliance and economic situations;   

   5. To provide functional support to the daily operations of the Budget Revenue Division in regarding to the implementation of the revenue forecasting models; 

   6. To provide technical and functional support related to other revenue forecasting models.

D. DELIVERABLES:

The following deliverables shall be submitted to the Client:

   1. Reports and manuals on existing revenue forecasting models’ implementation and further improvement of the models that are functional and tested as specified in 1st and 2nd task of the Section C;

   2. Revenue performance analysis reports, template and guidelines as specified in 3rd task of the Section C;

   3. Reports on the impact analysis and budget implication of new tax environment specified in 4th task of the Section C;

   4. A brief report on completion of tasks related with the activities; 

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

    - Education: The suitable candidate should have a degree in econometrics, financial modelling or mathematics;

    - Experience: The incumbent should have at least five (5) years relevant professional experience including the area of tax and finance. Prior experience in developing revenue forecasting models and financial models would be preferable. Knowledge of technical terms of tax and budget would be an advantage;

    - Language skills:  Fluent written and spoken skills in English and Mongolian;

    - Other skills: 

      a. Excellent interpersonal skills with the ability to function effectively and collaboratively in a team environment; 

      b. Be proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and data management, and have excellent web research and navigation skills;

      c. Familiarity with IT system particularly, with fiscal management information system is essential; and

      d  Be able to work overtime if required.

F. SUPERVISION AND REPORTING 

The Consultant will report directly to the Head of the Budget Revenue Division (BRD) and the Director General of the FPPD, MOF and will work on a day-to-day basis with officers, international and local consultants of the FPPD on all matters related to the assignment. The Head of the BRD and the Director General of the FPPD will meet regularly with the Consultant to review progress with the work program and to resolve any outstanding issues.

The Consultant will be required to carry out his tasks in line with the approved Work plan which will serve as a basis for measuring progress on desired outcomes and goals for the entire consultancy service. The work plan for the duration of the contract in consultation with and to be approved by the MOF team.

All information provided to the Consultant will be regarded as confidential and information will not be shared with any outside individuals or organizations without the Client’s prior consent .

G. CONTRACT DURATION 

The assignment is expected to commence in December 2019. The total duration of the consultancy service rendered is estimated to be at least twelve (12) months with possible extension period, if necessary. 

The consultant will be required to carry out his/her tasks in line with the approved Work plan, which will serve as a basis for measuring progress on desired outcomes, goals and monthly payments for the entire consultancy service. 

If you possess the above qualifications, please submit following documents:

     ·  Cover letter indicating why she/he considers her/himself suitable for the position,

     ·  Detailed CV highlighting relevant skills/experience,

     ·  Copy of diplomas or certificates and,

     ·  2 reference letters from previous last two employers  no later than 17:00, December 25, 2019.

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please note that incomplete applications would not be considered for evaluation. Only selected candidates will be contacted. Candidates can be interviewed. Detailed terms of reference can be requested from procurement@sffs.mn.

Contact address: Attn: Ms.L. Bayarmaa, Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project. Room #204, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; Tel: 70120582

70120582