A. BACKGROUND

Mongolia received a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (SFFSP). The Objective of the SFFS Project is designed to improve fiscal policy and sustainability in a mineral-based economy, protect the poor and vulnerable, and restore confidence in the financial sector. The project is designed into five components: (I) Strengthening Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management; (II) Improving the Efficiency of Public Financial Management; (III) Enhancing Financial Sector Stability; (IV) Strengthening the Social Protection System; (V) Project Management and Monitoring. The objectives are to Strengthening fiscal responsibility and implementing relevant policy measures, improving fiscal discipline, strengthening the resiliency of the banking system, improve public expenditure quality in social protection, and provide support for Project implementation, coordination, monitoring, and evaluation, including inter alia, audit arrangements, reporting requirements, procurement, and financial management activities respectively. For more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. PAD2269.

One of the objectives of Component D of SFFSP in the project appraisal document is to build in-house policy assessment capacity and technical capacity for evidence-based social welfare and social insurance policy making. The basis for developing the right low-risk policy is to assess the situation in a realistic and accurate way.  

SFFSP provides technical assistance to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection (MLSP) in the development of social insurance and welfare policies, as well as international and national consulting services. The MLSP needs a strengthened capacity for policy-making specialists and researchers of the Ministry's research institutes to develop long-term and medium-term policy documents and legal reforms by improving the capacity for data analysis and evidence-based policy development.

The MLSP has undertaken initiatives starting in 2021 to develop a system dynamic model for employment policies, labor market demand and supply analysis, child money, and raising the minimum wage. The Mongolian government and the MLSP are keen to base each policy decision on the results of calculations. System dynamics is a set of conceptual tools that enable us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems. Learning about this method will help specialists to understand the long-term effects of decisions and design strategies for greater success[1].   

The MLSP is also planning to develop a dynamic model for social welfare and social insurance policy options that consider the factors affecting the policy, such as changes in demography, economy, poverty, aging, etc.

The MLSP is keen to hire a professional entity i) to train specialists and researchers of the research institute affiliated with the Ministry, PPD of MLSP, SIGO, and General Office of Labor and  Welfare Services in using a system dynamics software; ii) create system dynamics models for social insurance and social welfare sector’s policy estimations; iii) to develop a policy guideline of Minister of Labor and Social Protection how to use system dynamics models for social insurance and social welfare sector.

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The objective of this assignment is to support the MLSP in increasing its ability to conduct detailed analyzes of the social insurance and social welfare policies, identify future trends, and estimate the future impact of policy options.

C. SCOPE OF THE WORK 

This assignment will focus on developing a dynamic model for assessing medium and long-term policy options in the field of social insurance and social welfare and improving the programs in close collaboration with the MLSP’s selected policy-making staff and researchers. The professional entity will undertake the following tasks:

Task I. To develop and carry out a training program (including developing the curriculum and handouts)  on the use of system dynamics software for the selected trainees. The training program should include the following topics:

a)    Training on system dynamics data preparation (Prepare data for analysis /coding and importing excel data to system dynamics software program and data management/);

b)    Training on system dynamics software (Using command window, identify the variables and their frequency, combining data sets by adding observations and by adding variables, generating new variables, work model files, workflow, correlation, and regression analysis graphs and charts);

c)    Advanced training in system dynamics software:

• Analyzing data using the research databases (Produce identifiable statistics, preparing and maintaining a list of evaluation indicators, create graphics by using the system dynamics software program);
• Graphics:

                •          Making common and simple graphs and tables

                •          Using the Graph Editor

• Explaining findings.

The purpose of the training is to provide the social protection policymakers and other relevant specialists of the MLSP, SIGO, and GOLWS with the software skills to analyze data in the sector’s statistical database, develop research, and report, calculate, and predict future risks and estimate policy options by using the system dynamics software. 

The professional entity should conduct training on the system dynamics software program for at least two months for the MLSP and relevant agencies’ staff in accordance with the training curriculum.

The MLSP will be responsible for the tuition of training courses for a total of 25 employees. The MLSP will provide the professional entity with a list of candidates for the training. The selected candidates should be responsible for the social welfare and social insurance policy of MLSP and researchers of the research institute affiliated with the Ministry. 

MLSP should provide social insurance and social welfare data for a system dynamics software analysis. Candidates must sign a contract with the professional entity after passing the assessment exam and determining their practical knowledge and ability. Candidates also should accept the terms of the contract and attend the training with full attendance. The professional entity should provide certificates to the candidates after the training. The MLSP will provide the professional entity (ahead of the training) with: i) datasets to be used for the training and ii) the list of priority outputs (social insurance and social welfare policy related) to be considered for running test analysis during the training.

The entity should prepare data provided by the MLSP for the training, provide course materials/manuals for the trainees for their use; install a system dynamics software on the trainees’ laptops or on their office computers; organize tests and assessment exams at the end of the training with MLSP’s represented person who has knowledge with system dynamics software, and verify satisfactory achievement of trainees. Prepare a detailed training report including the training pictures, exam assessment, and attendance sheets of the trainees.  

Task II. 

To develop a dynamic model of the social welfare system based on the number of beneficiaries, social welfare fund expenditures, household income, employment, and poverty through consideration of various variables and factors and their relationships and impact analysis.  The model should consider the need for determining future projections, testing various policy options, and calculating results, for example, the appropriate amount of social welfare pensions, the impact of welfare programs on poverty, the negative impact on employment, gender, and age of the population, by the standard of living, by location, etc. (based on the proposal of the Ministry, create a policy version for each social welfare program);

Task III.

To develop an initial version of the dynamic model for the social insurance funds to determine future projections, to test optimal policy options, to calculate the results, for example, to make estimations of how the loss of the insurance fund will change in the long term due to changes in pension parameters, social insurance Perform calculations for reform policy options for every 4 funds ( social insurance pension fund, social insurance allowance fund, unemployment insurance fund, industrial accident, and occupational disease insurance fund),  etc.

• Collect the necessary quantitative data and information and analyze relevant statistical data, identifying discrepancies, integrating and collecting data and information for use in dynamic models;
• Develop an experimental version of the system dynamic model that reflects the basic parameters of social insurance and social welfare.
• Prepare reports, manuals, and recommendations based on the results of the developed model.

Organize meetings and training to discuss and deliver system dynamic models and test results.

The professional entity should cooperate with staff who participated in the training of the system dynamics software for developing and finalizing the system dynamic model in the field of social welfare and social insurance.

The development of the system dynamic model of social welfare and social insurance should be based on the feedback of MLSP and relevant agencies’ comments and recommendation.

Task IV.

To develop a user guideline of the system dynamic model for (i) the social welfare dynamic model and (ii) the dynamic model for four social insurance funds.

The user guideline should include the following contents: Model Overview, Cycle, Model Software, and Requirements, Data Sources, Model Summary, Parameters and Relationships in Model, Model Stocks Model Flows, Model Converters, Results, Comparison of Model Output with Data, Potential Uses of Model, Model Limitations, Input Spreadsheet Format, Acquiring and Running Model, Model Equations and other related sections which are requested by MLSP.

The user guide should be two types which are for social welfare and social insurance staff.

D. DELIVERABLES

In order to ensure the quality of the deliverables, all deliverables should be discussed with relevant officials of MLSP and incorporate the comments: 

Deliverable 1. Referring to the Task I:

1. Tailored training programs prepared together with the exercises and curriculums for the participants;
2. Training handbook/manuals prepared based on the data provided by the MLSP both for applying the system dynamic model software for data analysis;
3. Copies of the signed contracts with the candidates.
4. An official letter of MLSP about the professional entity that has installed the system dynamic model software on the trainees’ computers;
5. Detailed training report including the training pictures, exam assessment, and attendance sheets of the trainees;
6. Copies of training certificates.

Deliverable 2. Referring to the Task II:

1. The detailed technical description of the developed and finalized system dynamic model of social welfare. A professional entity should be installed the final software on the related staff’s computers
2. A CD copy of the finalized system dynamic model software of the social welfare system. 
   

Deliverable 3. Referring to the Task III:

1. The detailed technical description of the module of developed and finalized system dynamic model of social insurance. A professional entity should be, installed the final software on the related staff’s computers
2. A CD copy of the finalized system dynamic model software of the social insurance system. 

Deliverable 4. Referring to the Task IV:

Prepared two kinds of users guideline for social welfare and social insurance staff, which should be provided to the MLSP.

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

Organization experience: The professional entity should have at least 3 years of relevant experience in developing and training in system dynamics software programs. The organization shall meet the following criteria:

• An authorized professional entity with a research background;
• The professional entity should have at least 3 years of experience in Computer Applications and Software and software training;
• Has experience in developing a system dynamics model;
• Has a  competent training team and training instructors.

Researcher and trainer 1:

Education: The trainer should have at least a Ph.D. degree in applied mathematics,  economics, or statistics.

Experience: The trainer should have at least 8 years of experience in the field of software programs, System dynamics, dynamic modeling, mathematical modeling, and other modern technologies and relevant professional experiences.

Language skills: Excellent verbal skills in Mongolian and a good understanding of English.

Other: An instructor and doing research in system dynamics, dynamic modeling, and mathematical modeling will be an advantage. Excellent interpersonal and communication skills with the ability to train people effectively and to collaborate in a team environment. Have the ability to perform and manage high-quality training in a relatively short period.

Researcher and trainer 2:

Education: The trainer should have at least a master’s degree in applied mathematics, economics, or statistics.

Experience: The trainer should have at least 5 years of experience in the field of applied mathematics, software programs, and other modern technologies and relevant professional experiences.

Language skills: Excellent verbal skills in Mongolian and a good understanding of English.

Other: An instructor will be advantaged. Excellent interpersonal and communication skills with the ability to train people effectively and to collaborate in a team environment. Have the ability to perform and manage high-quality training in a relatively short period. 

F.      SUPERVISION AND REPORTING

The professional entity will report directly to the Director of Policy, Planning Department (PPD).  The trainer will work on a day-to-day basis under the guidance of the Director of PPD, MLSP, on technical matters related to the assignment. Work progress will be presented during the training or other meetings as needed.  

The Director of PPD shall evaluate the performance on the agreed deliverables and approve the invoices for the delivered outputs.  

The consultant shall provide a 2-3 pages summary progress report detailing the achievements and impediments in executing the entire assignment effectively.  The MLSP and SFFS PIU will provide input to the evaluation of the consultant’s performance.

The professional entity, under the leadership of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, will train the Labor and Social Protection Research Institute and the Ministry's team and work with the working groups of social welfare and social insurance legislation reform and other related consultants.

G.    CONTRACT DURATION

The expected commencement date of the contract is December 2022, with a total duration of four months.

If any task is not finished and approved by the Client within the agreed-upon timeline, the consultant should complete the task/s without any additional cost.

Payment will be released upon satisfactory completion and submission of each deliverable, according to the following schedule:

• Submission of Deliverable 1 stated in the ToR conditional on the Client’s approval: 20 % of the total contract amount.
• Submission of Deliverable 2 and 3 stated in the ToR conditional on the Client’s approval: 50 % of the total contract amount.
• Submission of Deliverable 4 stated in the ToR conditional on the Client’s approval: 30 % of the total contract amount. 

H.     INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

The professional entity will provide office space for the clients and to cooperate with them for successful training.  The trainer will have access to all necessary data and information. 

If you possess the above qualifications, please submit the following documents via email to procurement_sgm@sffs.mn:

• Letter of Expressions of Interest;
• Company introduction along with a copy of state registration certificate;
• Audited financial statements for the last two years;
• Implementation Plan and Schedule; and
• Evidence of specific experience and qualification information of the firm relevant to the assignment (Annex I).

Expressions of Interest must be delivered in a written form to the address below by e-mail no later than 15:00 PM, December 28, 2022. Expressions of Interest should be clearly marked as “Professional entity to develop a dynamic model (software) for projecting mid and long-term effects of social welfare and social insurance policies, and to organize capacity building training of sector employees on this assessment model (D1/CS/60)”.

The consultant will be selected in accordance with the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 2016).

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please be noted that incomplete applications will not be considered for evaluation. Only the selected candidates will be contacted. Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours: 8:30 to 17:30 hours (local Ulaanbaatar time) or procurement_sgm@sffs.mn.

Address for submission of Expression of Interest: Attention to Ms. Oyumaa D., Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project, Address: Room #205, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Tel: 70120582 or via email to: procurement_sgm@sffs.mn.

70120582