A. BACKGROUND 

The World Bank (WB) and the European Union (EU) have been implementing a new hybrid Trust Fund (TF)-financed Strengthening Governance in Mongolia (SGM) project aimed to support the efforts of the Government of Mongolia (GOM) to improve fiscal discipline, public financial management (PFM), as well as transparency and accountability processes for strengthened governance in Mongolia. 

This TF, through both Recipient Executed (RE) and Bank Executed (BE) interventions, serves two main purposes. Firstly, it complements and expands the ongoing technical assistance the WB is providing through the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability (SFFS) Project. Secondly, this TF supports the GOM in advancing the current efforts toward increasing transparency, participation, and accountability in fiscal matters as well as in strengthening its capacity to deal with non-technical drivers of the reform process that prevent state agencies from implementing policies and regulations as intended.

Sub-Component 1.4 “Research and Analysis Capacity for Sound Fiscal and Financial Policy” aims at improving macroeconomic and fiscal management through adequate economic researches and analyses.

During the period between 2010 and 2016, when mining commodity prices were high, procyclical fiscal policy was implemented. The policy was dominated by higher fiscal revenue and expenditure, thus led to higher inflation and unsustainable public debt. International organizations recommend the Mongolian Government to implement and monitor counter-cyclical fiscal policy, with sufficient fiscal buffers to manage the economy’s exposure to the boom-bust commodity-price cycles. 

Hence, Ministry of Finance (MOF) is faced with the need to improve its capacity to analyze and interpret monthly and quarterly fiscal data in line with macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the current fiscal impact on the economy.

The Fiscal and Financial Research Department (FFRD), MOF is responsible for conducting analyses and aims to build simple tools to estimate the fiscal policy stance and automatic stabilizer effects of fiscal policy in order to implement sound fiscal and financial policy decisions. 

For this purpose, the MOF intends to hire a national junior consultant to provide support to the FFRD to enhance fiscal analytical capacity and develop tools for within-year fiscal analysis and forecasting. 

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGMENT

The objective of the assignment is to provide support to the MOF to review international experiences on presenting fiscal policy analyses and provide necessary support in evaluating the current situation of the fiscal stance and automatic stabilizers.

C. SCOPE OF WORK

Key responsibilities under this assignment will include the following tasks at the minimum:

1. Review international models of good practice for within-year fiscal reporting;
2. Develop tools for within-year fiscal analysis and forecasting, incorporating an ability to project the effects of automatic fiscal stabilizers embedded in the budget;
3. Establish quarterly database for undertaking analysis of fiscal trends, including the impacts of  automatic stabilizers on the budget of Mongolia for the last 5 years;
4. Prepare training materials on the tools, data and analytical processes above; and
5. Undertake other tasks related to activities mentioned above as reasonably requested by the Client.

D. DELIVERABLES 

The following deliverables shall be submitted to the Client:

1. A report on the findings of the international experiences on the approaches to fiscal policy analyses that incorporates the ability to account for the effects of automatic stabilizers;
2. Quarterly fiscal and economic analysis database established; and
3. Training materials on the approaches for evaluation of the fiscal stance and automatic stabilizers.

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

Education: The suitable candidate should have at least bachelor degree in economics, finance, or other related field;

Experience: Candidate should have a knowledge in finance or economic research and analysis with at least one year experience in conducting independent research in a relevant area;

Language skills: Working knowledge of English;

Other skills: 

a. Excellent analytical, organizational, communication, and interpersonal skills with the ability to function effectively and collaboratively in a team environment; high integrity and accountability; and

b. Be able to work overtime if required.

F. SUPERVISION AND REPORTING 

The Consultant will report directly to the Director General of the Financial and Fiscal Research Department (FFRD), MOF and will work on a day-to-day basis with officers and the local consultants of the FFRD on all matters related to the assignment. 

Director General of the FFRD will meet regularly with the Consultant to review progress with the work program and to resolve any outstanding issues. The Consultant will be required to carry out his tasks in line with the approved Work Plan which will serve as a basis for measuring progress on desired outcomes and goals for the entire consultancy service. 

All information provided to the Consultant will be regarded as confidential and information shall not be shared with any outside individuals or organizations without the Client’s prior consent.

G. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

The Ministry of Finance (FFRD) will work with the consultant on a day-to-day basis. The consultant  shall be provided with all necessary data and information to perform the tasks detailed in Section C.  

H. CONTRACT DURATION AND PAYMENT CONDITION 

The assignment is expected to commence in November 2022. The total duration of the consultancy service is estimated to be 3 months. 

The consultant will be required to carry out his/her tasks in line with the approved Work Plan, which will serve as a basis for measuring progress on desired outcomes, goals and monthly payments for the entire consultancy service. 

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