Орлогын төсөөллийн загварыг сайжруулах, төсвийн индикаторын өгөгдлийн санг өргөжүүлэх, орлогын гүйцэтгэлд дүн шинжилгээ хийх дотоодын зөвлөх сонгон шалгаруулна
Урилгын дугаар: A2/CS/025
Захиалагч: Сангийн яам
Зарын төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ
Зарласан огноо: 2022.05.11
Дуусах огноо: 2022.05.21 15:00:00  

Зарын урилга

A. BACKGROUND

Mongolia received a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (SFFSP). The objective of the SFFS Project has been to contribute to the Government of Mongolia’s efforts to strengthen fiscal and financial stability and improve the quality of expenditure. The project is designed into five components: (A) Strengthening Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management; (B) Improving the Efficiency of Public Financial Management; (C) Enhancing Financial Sector Stability; (D) Strengthening the Social Protection System; (E) Project Management and Monitoring. For more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. PAD2269 . 

Sub-component A.2 aims at “Strengthening fiscal policy and planning” by improving the existing legal framework through reviewing the related fiscal laws and including new fiscal relations to address the inconsistencies in tax laws, introduce international best practices in the tax laws such as transfer pricing and base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS), and build comprehensive revenue forecasting and financial models for economic analysis of large-scale mega projects. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) is responsible for the implementation of the Sub-component A2 of the SFFS project. 

Thanks to the continued efforts and investment into revenue estimating tools the fiscal revenue models currently employed by the MOF have been advanced substantially. This is witnessed by improved accuracy in the budget revenue forecasting over the last couple of years despite having traditional uncertainty in the mining commodity prices and production. The fiscal revenue implications of tax reforms and COVID and other tax measures have been assessed comprehensively by using updated revenue models as mentioned. 

Beginning from 2022 fiscal year the GOM is planning to undertake number of revenue measures to better allocate mining and other revenues across all provinces in Mongolia. In particular, the GOM is planning to amend the Budget Law to develop improved allocation of mining royalties and other taxes across all provinces and the capital city. In connection with this assignment the MOF will carry out research on this proposed activity with specific focus on the revenue implications. It is crucial at this stage to conduct thorough assessment of distributional impact and fiscal risks of these measures on local and state budgets. In this regard the MOF shall be required to adjust its existing models to reflect changes in the Budget Law to carry out such scenario analysis as stated.

In addition to this, the MOF will be required to carefully monitor the fiscal impact and the implementation of the newly approved Law on Administrative and Territorial Units of Mongolia and Their Governance. In accordance with this Law the significant fiscal decentralization effort will be carried out. The fiscal impact of these newly approved revenue measures will require the MOF to revisit and upgrade the existing revenue models and constant risk assessment on local revenue collection and overall revenue performance. 

Given the importance of the assignment, the MOF needs to hire a national consultant experienced in the area of financial modelling and a solid background in applied mathematics with specific experience in econometric analysis to make an assessment and review of existing revenue models and to improve fiscal revenue forecasting modelling for the duration of ten (10) months under Sub-component A.2 of the SFFSP.

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGMENT

The objectives of the assignment are (i) to further improve the existing revenue forecasting models; (ii) to maintain and expand the database for fiscal indicators; and (iii) to provide analysis on revenue performance.

C. SCOPE OF WORK

Key responsibilities under this assignment will include the following tasks, but not limited to:

Task 1: Continued improvement of the existing revenue forecasting models:  

  • Revise and assess existing revenue forecasting models in major revenue items such as Corporate Income tax, Value Added Tax, Personal Income Tax, Customs Duties and local taxes taking into account changes in the tax and budget and other laws impacting revenue collection; 
  • Carry out analysis on revenue performances providing detailed comments on variations between estimates and actual performance and produce visual explanations with dashboards and charts;
  • Conduct assessment of distributional impact and fiscal risks of approved measures on local and state budgets; and
  • Provide functional support to daily operations of the Budget Revenue Division regarding the implementation of the revenue forecasting models;

Task 2: Maintain and expand the database for fiscal indicators

  • Maintain, revise and update the database of revenue indicators in accordance with revised classifications; 
  • Create new database to monitor the revenue allocation measures from state budget to local budget; and
  • Collaborate with other government agencies, including the General Taxation Department and the Customs Office, on integration and continued improvement of the database; 

Task 3: Review and assess tax collection rate and monitor outstanding tax arrears and prepayments 

  • Conduct possible collection and compliance risks of newly approved revenue measures;
  • Carry out assessment on revenue performance taking into account the tax arrears and prepayments to improve revenue collection; and
  • Undertake other tasks related to the activities above as reasonably requested by the Client. 

D. DELIVERABLES 

  1. Revised revenue forecasting models with tools to analyze the recent policy changes affecting revenue performance;
  2. Analysis on local revenue performance and estimates including revenue allocations to local budgets;   
  3. Updated manuals for revenue forecasting models for end-users;  
  4. Updated and reviewed database of revenue indicators;
  5. Assessment report on revenue performance analysis with visual dashboards and charts; 
  6. Prepare data series for collection of tax arrears and tax prepayments and their effect on overall revenue performance 
  7. A brief report on completion of tasks related to activities in the section C.

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

Education: The suitable candidate should have a bachelor’s degree in economics, business, accounting or similar field;

Experience: The incumbent should have at least three (3) years of relevant professional experience in the area of economic analysis. Prior experience in developing forecasting models would be preferable. Knowledge of technical terms of tax and budget would be an advantage;

Language skills:  Moderate written and spoken English skill is required;

Other skills: 

  • Excellent interpersonal skills with the ability to function effectively and collaboratively in a team environment; 
  • Be proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and data management, and have excellent web research and navigation skills;
  • Familiarity with IT system particularly, with fiscal management information system is essential; and
  • Be able to work overtime if required.

F. SUPERVISION AND REPORTING 

The Consultant will report directly to the Head of the Budget Revenue Division (BRD) and the Director General of the FPPD, MOF and will work on a day-to-day basis with officers, international and local consultants of the FPPD on all matters related to the assignment. The Head of the BRD and the Director General of the FPPD will meet regularly with the Consultant to review progress with the work program and to resolve any outstanding issues.

The Consultant will be required to carry out his tasks in line with the approved Work plan which will serve as a basis for measuring progress on desired outcomes and goals for the entire consultancy service. 

All information provided to the Consultant will be regarded as confidential and information will not be shared with any outside individuals or organizations without the Client’s prior consent .

G. CONTRACT DURATION AND PAYMENT CONDITION 

The assignment is expected to commence in May, 2022. The total duration of the consultancy service rendered is estimated to be at least ten (10) months. 

The consultant will be required to carry out his/her tasks in line with the approved Work plan, which will serve as a basis for measuring progress on desired outcomes, goals and monthly payments for the entire consultancy service. 

H. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

The Ministry of Finance (FPPD) will provide office space and will work with the consultant on a day-to-day basis. The consultant  shall be provided with all necessary data and information to perform the tasks detailed in Section C. 

If you possess the above qualifications, please submit the following documents via email to procurement_sgm@sffs.mn:

1. Cover letter indicating why she/he considers her/himself suitable for the position.

2. Detailed CV highlighting relevant skills/experience.

3. Copy of diplomas or certificates; and,

4. Two (2) reference letters from previous last two employers no later than 15:00 PM, May 21, 2022.

The consultant will be selected in accordance with the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 2016).

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please be noted that incomplete applications would not be considered for evaluation. Only selected candidate will be contacted.

Address for submission of Expression of Interest: Attention to Ms.Oyunyam.M, Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project, Address: Room #205, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Tel: 70120582 or via email to: procurement_sgm@sffs.mn

Холбоо барих

70120582

Хавсралт

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