А. BACKGROUND

Mongolia has received a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (SFFSP). The Objective of the SFFS Project is designed to improve fiscal policy and sustainability in a mineral-based economy, protect the poor and vulnerable, and restore confidence in the financial sector. The project is designed into five components: (I) Strengthening Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management; (II)Improving the Efficiency of Public Financial Management; (III) Enhancing Financial Sector Stability; (IV) Strengthening the Social Protection System; (V) Project Management and Monitoring. The objectives are to Strengthening fiscal responsibility and implementing relevant policy measures, improving fiscal discipline, strengthening the resiliency of the banking system, improving public expenditure quality in social protection, providing support for Project implementation, coordination, monitoring, and evaluation, including, inter alia, audit arrangements, reporting requirements, procurement, and financial management activities respectively. For more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. PAD2269.  

The Social Welfare Law (2012) aims to make social assistance more effective in reducing poverty and protecting the vulnerable.  Specifically, it defines the eligible beneficiaries as “the members of households living below poverty line whose living standard has been assessed and entered into a central database of households established in accordance with the methodology jointly approved by the National Statistical Committee and the State central administrative organization in charge of social welfare”. Currently, the living standards are assessed based on the scores generated by a Proxy Means Test (PMT) formula using the data collected through the PMT surveys, which is known as the Household Living Standards Assessment (HLSA). It is administered en-masse about every three years, with on-demand updating in-between. Upon verification, the survey data and the scores are then stored in a central Integrated Household Database (IHD). 

The PMT formula is determined by estimating a relationship between a measure of welfare (usually a natural logarithm of pre-transfer consumption per equivalent member) and a set of indicators through linear regression. To perform such an estimation, a survey dataset with accurate measures of household welfare (for example, a consumption module) as well as potential ‘proxies’ are required. Such PMT modeling generates a set of indicators and coefficients. Data on indicators are collected from the eligible population through PMT surveys, and the coefficients are used to generate welfare scores. 

In Mongolia, the first PMT model was developed in 2009 with support from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank using the Household Socio-Economic Survey of (HSES) 2007/2008 data.  It was then revised in 2013 and 2016 based on the HSES 2012 and HSES 2014 respectively. In all cases, separate models were estimated for Ulaanbaatar, Aimag (Province) Centers, and Soums (sub-province that includes soum centers and the countryside). 

Beginning in 2017, select information collected in the PMT survey (HLSA) is verified against administrative databases. Once data is digitized and checked for internal validity within the survey, select information is then verified against administrative databases. This includes information about household members (demographics) from the civil registry, car ownership from the vehicle registry, livestock numbers from the annual livestock census, immovable properties from the property registry, and employment status from the social insurance contribution database. If there is any conflicting information between these data and those provided in the PMT survey (HLSA forms), social workers at the grassroots level are asked to validate the information and provide possible explanations for the discrepancy. Once the information in the PMT survey matches or is reconciled with the administrative databases, the household living standard score is computed using the PMT formula. Currently, the IHD has information for 714,000 verified households, representing about 70 percent of the total households in Mongolia.”   

The Government of Mongolia is keen to develop a methodology for determining household living standards based on direct income data. Therefore, the MLSP, NSO and the Ministry of Finance, and other relevant organizations started to research and analysis. Also, the MLSP has established a Working Group and sub workgroup with the participation of the NSO and other relevant government agencies on the 30th of November 2020 with the task to guide the process for improving the targeting methodology. In addition, the MLSP has requested SFFSP, World Bank to provide technical assistance on the possibility of developing and adopting a hybrid method that gives the opportunity to use an improved PMT methodology and available government administrative databases for a better assessment of household living standards. For this proposal, a working group at the MLSP has worked with international and national consultants in 2021 with funding from the World Bank's SFFSP.

The preparation of administrative data was time-consuming due to the confidentiality of information of government agencies, the lack of a legal framework for administrative data collection, and the lack of cohesiveness. During the development of the draft hybrid methodology, 49 types of information from 9 government organizations were collected and consolidated as part of the verification of the government administrative database.

The consultants have prepared their first report in November 2021 and presented it to the working group chaired by the Deputy Minister. They have executed the following tasks:

• the report on Data analysis using HSES and Administrative data; the draft of a report detailing the results and methodology;
  
• updated of HLSA questionnaire to include the new items required by the revised PMT;
• provision of PMT model with coefficients for UB, Aimag centers, Soum Centers, and countryside, to allow MLSP to identify eligible beneficiaries.

MLSP and the members of the working group are highly satisfied with the above reports and MLSP keen to approve the joint order of the MLSP and NSO in the near future.

With this background, MLSP wishes to hire an experienced national consultant for (i) verifying the variables and coefficients of the proposed hybrid methodology;  (ii) drafting the NSO and MLSP joint order to approve hybrid methodology, questionnaire form, and fill-in instructions and accompanying documents, and (iii) supporting the technical discussion preceding the approval process.

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The main objective of this consultant service is to facilitate the MLSP and NSO joint Working Group, and NSO’s methodology council in finalizing the draft joint order of hybrid methodology, questionnaire form, and fill-in instructions before submission to the NSO and supporting the Ministry for the approval process.

C. SCOPE OF THE WORK

The local consultant will be responsible for the following tasks of this assignment.

Task 1. Verifying the variables and coefficients of the hybrid methodology proposed by the international consultant  with the poverty indicators, and analyzing and drawing conclusions on the compatibility with characteristics and circumstances of Mongolia, and assisting the Ministry on further improvement of the methodology;

Task 2. Selecting a pilot testing sample for the MLSP as well as providing methodological recommendations  to the data collection firm,  and based on such data collection, analyzing the findings in cooperation with the international consultant to finalize the new  methodology’s formula and indicators;

Task 3. Based on the result of pilot testing, discussion and the new model estimation, finalizing  the methodology in consultation with the international consultant, and drafting the joint order of the MLSP and NSO which includes the following:

1. Rationale and requirements
   
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology (research questions, identifications, indicators, variables, scores, errors, guide explanations)
4. Data collection (use application)
5. About the research team and its functions and tasks
6. Data processing, database and uses
7. Expected results

Task 4. Supporting and assisting the MLSP to have the hybrid methodology for determining the living standards of households discussed by stakeholders and by the methodology council of NSO, and finalized. 

D. DELIVERABLES

Аll deliverables should be finalized upon incorporating the comments from  relevant officials of MLSP and GOLWS:

Deliverable 1. A report and conclusion after reviewing international consultant’s report, methodological indicators, and coefficients (referring to Task 1)

Deliverable 2. Methodological recommendations to be considered in conducting the pilot testing of the proposed revised PMT formula and report of analysis on results of the data collection of the pilot testing research (referring to Task 2)

Deliverable 3. A complete set of draft documents concerning  hybrid methodology for determining household living standards prepared for joint adoption  by the Chairman of the NSO and the Minister of Labor and Social Welfare, and (referring to Task 3)

Deliverable 4. A report of the discussion on the finalized methodology by relevant parties, working group, and NSO’s methodology council, in which suggestions of the participants were reflected. (referring to Task 4)

F. SUPERVISION AND REPORTING

The consultant will report directly to the Director of Policy, Planning Department (PPD).  The consultant may be requested to provide information to the MLSP’s Working Group and will carry out tasks in liaison with the work of the Working group. The consultant will work on a day-to-day basis under the guidance of the Director of PPD on technical matters related to the assignment. Work progress will be presented during the working group meeting or other meetings as needed.   

The Director of PPD shall evaluate the performance on the agreed deliverables and approve the invoices for the delivered outputs. 

The consultant will prepare a 3-5 pages summary report detailing the achievements and impediments in executing the entire assignment effectively, at the completion of the consultancy assignment.  The MLSP and SFFS PIU will provide input to the evaluation of the consultant’s performance. 

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

Education:  A suitable candidate should have an advanced degree in applied statistics, at least a bachelor's degree, and higher.

Experience:  Incumbent should have a minimum of 10 years experience in the following; 

• Experience in analysis of Proxy Means test methodology
• Experience in poverty analysis and monitoring
• Experience in the analysis of household survey data (statistical modeling)
• Should be very familiar with the administrative data sources in Mongolia as well as with the ongoing developments.

Language skills: Good reading and writing skills in English; 

Computer literacy: The candidate should be familiar with data management software such as STATA, and have access to statistic software.

Other: Excellent interpersonal skills with the ability to function effectively and collaboratively in a team environment.

F. CONTRACT DURATION

The contract is expected to commence in January 2022. The contract will have a duration of 2 months.

Based on the evolving needs of the MLSP and the performance of the consultant, the contract may be extended if needed. If any task is not finished and approved by the MLSP within the agreed-upon timeline, the consultant should complete the task/s without any additional cost.

Payments will be released upon satisfactory completion of all deliverables, according to the following schedule:

• Submission of Deliverable 1 and 2 stated in the ToR conditional on the MLSP’s approval: 30 % of the total contract amount 
• Submission of Deliverable 3 stated in the ToR conditional on the MLSP’s approval: 40 % of the total contract amount 
• Submission of Deliverable 4 stated in the ToR conditional on the MLSP’s approval: 30 % of the total contract amount.

G. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

The MLSP will provide office space for the consultant to work with the international consultant and the professional entity which will be contacting pilot testing, and the technical working groups as well as the MLSP officials.  The consultant will have access to all necessary data and information.  

If you possess the above qualifications, please submit the following documents via email to procurement_sgm@sffs.mn:

    1. Cover letter indicating why she/he considers her/himself suitable for the position.

    2. Detailed CV highlighting relevant skills/experience.

    3. Copy of diplomas or certificates; and,

    4. 2 reference letters from the previous last two employers no later than 15:00, January 06, 2022.

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please be noted that incomplete applications would not be considered for evaluation. Only selected candidate will be contacted.

Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Individual Consultant Selection method set out in the Procurement Regulations: The following is the link to the World Bank’s website: https://policies.worldbank.org/sites/ppf3/PPFDocuments/Forms/DispPage.aspx?docid=083b3f94-a932-4395-a410-834f8bc14f8c

Address for submission of Expression of Interest: Attention to Ms.Oyunyam.M, Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Governance in Mongolia Project, Address: Room #204, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Tel: 70120582 or via email to: procurement_sgm@sffs.mn

70120582