A. BACKGROUND

Mongolia has received a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (“SFFSP”). The development objective of Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project for Mongolia is to contribute to the Government of Mongolia’s efforts to strengthen fiscal and financial stability and improve the quality of expenditure. The project is designed into five components: (I) Strengthening Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management; (II) Improving the Efficiency of Public Financial Management; (III) Enhancing Financial Sector Stability; (IV) Strengthening the Social Protection System; (V) Project Management and Monitoring. The objectives are to: Strengthening fiscal responsibility and implementing relevant policy measures, improving fiscal discipline, strengthening the resiliency of the banking system, improving public expenditure quality in social protection, providing support for Project implementation, coordination, monitoring and evaluation, including, inter alia, audit arrangements, reporting requirements, procurement and financial management activities respectively. For more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. PAD2269.

Poverty expresses itself in many ways, several approaches are used to assist those who are affected. Strategies focus, in varying degrees, on material and social deprivations such as those related to health, safety and living conditions, as it is easier to observe and measure these aspects than it is to observe and measure people’s ability to achieve meaningful and dignified lives vis-à-vis other people. All forms of poverty are, in fact, relative and subjective because it is in relation to social contexts that they are judged unacceptable. Recent studies by the National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSO, 2019) reveal that poverty rate in Mongolia is estimated at 29.6 percent.  

If assistance is to target those who have particular needs and different degrees of capability, a variety of indicators are required to draw such distinctions and to better understand the forms and causes of poverty and vulnerability. Identifying the magnitude of poverty is crucial to effectively target the various poverty alleviation programmes and safety nets so as to ensure their budgetary cost effectiveness in minimising the social costs of the policy decisions (Suryanarayana,1996). Thus, understanding poverty levels is important for generating policy, targeting development initiatives, and monitoring and evaluating economic progress over time. In overall, maximising benefits to the poor for a given budgetary cost or by minimising the cost subject to a poverty alleviation target is one of those key areas of fiscal management. 

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The objective of this consultancy service is to develop an econometric model for estimating poverty in Mongolia. 

C. SCOPE OF THE WORK

The scope of work has the tasks as follows: 

   1) Task 1.1: Assessment of policies for poverty alleviation

             • Do assessment on the country’s past cases of policy arrangements for poverty alleviation;

      Task 1.2: Write recommendation report on enhancing poverty alleviation policies’ effectiveness and efficiency within the country’s fiscal management framework; 

   2) Task 2.1: Literature review

             • Write a literature review, which examine methodically and in detail the recent knowledge including substantive findings, as well as theoretical and methodological contributions in the field of forecasting poverty indicators. A literature review should:

                - Be organised around a coherent set of questions;

                - Include the major classic studies related to the questions guiding the study;

                - Acknowledge the author’s biases, as well as the limitations of the review process;

                - Critically evaluate the quality of the research according to clear criteria;

                - Present critical evidences in the form of quotes, illustrations, graphs, and/or tables;

                - Present logical arguments and build a clear rationale for additional research;

                - Have an accurate and up­to­date bibliography that adheres to recognised style guidelines;

                - Include tabular views of methodology comparisons, which identify the pros and cons of respective approaches; 

      Task 2.2: Database

             • Update the country data of poverty and maintain data integrity; 

      Task 2.3: Econometric model for poverty forecasting 

             • Develop an econometric model with Mongolian economic characteristics for poverty forecasting. An ideal econometric model should: 

                - Be fully justified theoretical and practical requirements for model selection;

                - Provide an ideal way to incorporate expert judgment and quantitative information;

                - Be testable against data that were not used to estimate it and against data

                - that were not available when it was specified;

                - Be able to describe the events occurring after it was formulated and estimated, at least for a few quarters or years;

                - Incorporate other useful models as special cases;

             • Provide an accurate picture of current trends and future prospects of poverty, and an assessment of how likely it is that future targets will be made; 

      Task 2.4: Handbook 

             • Write a handbook to make practical and effective use of developed econometric model for poverty forecasting. The handbook should:

                - Be user-friendly;

                - Be practical, case-based format uses real-date examples;

                - Emphasis on macroeconomic aspects-centered analysis;

                - Expert perspectives identify the pros and cons of making practical use of model for macroeconomic analysis; 

      Task 2.5: Workshop

             • Organise a workshop on a handbook to make practical and effective use of a developed econometric model for poverty forecasting;

    3) Task 3: Macro-economic projections 

             • Develop and maintain a macro-economic projection model for the selected indicators; and present to the beneficiary on quarterly basis; 

    4) Task 4: Other assigned tasks

             • Undertake such other tasks as reasonably requested and/or assigned by the beneficiary; 

D. DELIVERABLES

The key deliverables include but not limited to the reports for all tasks as specified under “Scope of Work” as follows: 

   1) Assessment report on the country’s past cases of policy arrangements for poverty alleviation;

   2) Recommendation report on enhancing poverty alleviation policies’ effectiveness and efficiency within the country’s fiscal management framework

   3) Written literature review in the field of forecasting poverty indicators; 

   4) Updated poverty database of the country; 

   5) Econometric model with Mongolian economic characteristics for poverty forecasting; 

   6) Poverty forecasts for 2020-2022;

   7) Handbook to make practical and effective use of developed econometric model for poverty forecasting;

   8) Workshop on a handbook to make practical and effective use of a developed econometric model for poverty forecasting; 

   9) Quarterly presentations of selected macro-economic indicator projections;  

E. REQUIRED QUALIFICATIONS

   Education: A suitable candidate should have the master’s degree from an accredited academic institution in the field economics, statistics, and other relevant areas;

   Experience: At least 5 years relevant experience. Satisfactory prior experiences with the public authorities are advantages; 

   Language skills: Excellent command of written English and Mongolian;

   Other skills: a) Excellent communication and interpersonal skills; b) Strong research and problem-solving skills; c) Demonstrated ability to use relevant methods and instruments to conduct economic analysis; d) Ability to interact effectively with ministry staff, 

F. CONTRACT DURATION

The assignment is expected to commence in December, 2019. The duration of the assignment is for 12 months. If consultant’s performance in accordance with tasks in the TOR is inadequate, the beneficiary shall be entitled to terminate the contract of the assignment.

If you possess the above qualifications, please submit following documents:

     ·  Cover letter indicating why she/he considers her/himself suitable for the position,

     ·  Detailed CV highlighting relevant skills/experience,

     ·  Copy of diplomas or certificates and,

     ·  2 reference letters from previous last two employers no later than 17:00, December 04, 2019.

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please note that incomplete applications would not be considered for evaluation. Only selected candidates will be contacted. Candidates can be interviewed. Detailed terms of reference can be requested from procurement@sffs.mn.

Contact address: Attn: Ms.L. Bayarmaa, Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project. Room #204, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; Tel: 70120582

70120582