A. BACKGROUND 

Mongolia has received a credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (“SFFSP”). The Objective of the SFFSP is to contribute to the Government of Mongolia’s efforts to strengthen fiscal and financial stability and improve the quality of expenditure. The project is designed into five components: (I) Strengthening Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management; (II) Improving the Efficiency of Public Financial Management; (III) Enhancing Financial Sector Stability; (IV) Strengthening the Social Protection System; (V) Project Management and Monitoring. The objectives are to: Strengthening fiscal responsibility and implementing relevant policy measures, improving fiscal discipline, strengthening the resiliency of the banking system, improving public expenditure quality in social protection, providing support for Project implementation, coordination, monitoring and evaluation, including, inter alia, audit arrangements, reporting requirements, procurement and financial management activities respectively. For more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. PAD2269 .

Mongolian export is noticeably less diversified, depending on few mineral commodity, so it is very sensitive to the commodity price changes and foreign direct investment. Due to lower foreign direct investment and deteriorating terms of trade, there had been huge pressures on the balance of payments with reserves declining before the three-year arrangement for Mongolia under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Globalisation is one of the most important tendencies in nowadays world economy, but integration into international organizations and countries unions is one of the preconditions for economic development. Nowadays there is no country that can be viewed as closed and independent economic system. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse not only internal processes of the economy, but also interactions with other economic systems. In addition, the consequences in economic relations should be considered while realising the economic policy. The most important statistical statement that describes country's economic links with the rest of the world is balance of payments, which includes all payments during the fixed period of time between residents and non-residents for goods, services, transfers and  financial  assets.

For strengthening balance of payment and increasing international reserves, the government needs to develop model and methodology of projection, build statistical database for Balance of Payment. Thus, the MOF is seeking to hire a national consultant on compiling model and methodology of projection, statistical data preparation for Balance of Payment, presenting them to the MOF staff. 

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT 

The main objective of this assignment is to strengthen the MOFs capacity to developing projection and analysis for Balance of Payment and making policy to sustain it.

C. SCOPE OF THE WORK 

Following assignments will be conducted by the national consultant, but not limited to: 

Task 1: Background analysis. 

        • Study international experience in macroeconomic projections (forecasting) and analysis for Balance of Payment; 

        • Evaluate the current situation of  the country’s Balance of Payment;

        • Undertake needs assessment of Macroeconomic projection models and analysis for Balance of Payment and policy for improving external sector;

Task 2: Propose macroeconomic projection models for Balance of Payment. 

        • Establish database for Balance of Payment projection;

        • Develop macroeconomic projection model for Balance of Payment, including macroeconomic indicators;

Task 3: Recommendation 

        • Make policy recommendations on improving balance of payment accordance with macroeconomic stability.

Task 4: Other assigned tasks

        • Undertake such other tasks as reasonably requested and/or assigned by the Director General of Economic Policy Department (EPD) and the Director of the Macroeconomic Policy Division (MEPD).

D. DELIVERABLES

Main expected deliverables include:

        • Background analysis on current situation of balance of Payment and macroeconomic projection;

        • Envaulted MOF’s needs for macroeconomic projection model of Balance of Payment; 

        • Built database for Balance of Payment projection;

        • Development of macroeconomic projection models for Balance of Payment;

        • Policy recommendations on improving balance of payment accordance with macroeconomic stability.

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

   - Education: A suitable candidate should have at least bachelor’s degree in economics and development economics. Master's degree is preferred;

   - Experience: Incumbent should have at least 4 years relevant experience including strong macroeconomic modelling, analysis and balance of payment projection; 

   - Language skills: fluent written and spoken skills in English and written and spoken skills in Mongolian;

   - Other skills:

     a. Ethical approaches to research and practice;

     b. Strong analytical and research capabilities and problem-solving skills;

     c. Demonstrated ability to use relevant methods and instruments to conduct economic analysis;

     d. Ability to interact effectively with officials and staff of MOF;

     e. Research skill including the retrieval of information from a variety of sources; 

     f. Time management skill;

F. CONTRACT DURATION

The assignment is expected to commence in October 2019. The duration of the assignment is for 12 months. If consultant’s performance in accordance with tasks in the TOR is inadequate, the Director General of the EPD shall be entitled to terminate the contract of the assignment.

If you possess the above qualifications, please submit following documents:

        · Cover letter indicating why she/he considers her/himself suitable for the position,

        · Detailed CV highlighting relevant skills/experience,

        · Copy of diplomas or certificates and,

        · 2 reference letters from previous last two employers no later than 17:00, October 11, 2019.

The consultant will be selected in accordance with the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 2016).

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please note that incomplete applications would not be considered for evaluation. Only selected candidates will be contacted. Candidates can be interviewed. Detailed terms of reference can be requested from procurement@sffs.mn.

Contact address: Attn: Ms.L. Bayarmaa, Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Project. Room #204, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; Tel: 70120582

70120582