Макро зохистой бодлогын хэрэгслийг нэвтрүүлэн DSGE загвар хөгжүүлэх Олон Улсын зөвлөх компани сонгон шалгаруулна
Урилгын дугаар: C5/CS/11
Захиалагч: Монголбанк
Зарын төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ
Зарласан огноо: 2020-01-06
Дуусах огноо: 2020-01-20 17:00:00  

Зарын урилга

A. BACKGROUND

The Government of Mongolia has received a credit from the International Development Association toward the cost of the Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project (SFFSP), and it intends to improve fiscal policy and sustainability in a mineral-based economy, protect the poor and vulnerable, and restore confidence in the financial sector. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) will be responsible for the implementation of the project, including overall coordination, results monitoring.

As a small open economy dependent on commodity exports, Mongolian economy and the financial market are subject to volatile flow of foreign capital, which swings in relation to demand and price for commodities. The intermittent influx of capital flow fuels credit growth and overheats the domestic economy in times of high tides at the global commodity market, while a sudden stop destabilizes both the macroeconomic and financial sector environment. In this regard, a policy mix tailored to stabilize both the macroeconomic environment and the financial sector is crucial.

With the amendment of the Central Bank Law in 2018, the Central Bank’s function was broadened to include macroprudential policy with the focus of stability in the financial system. To alleviate systemic risks in the financial sector, the Bank of Mongolia (BoM) has actively taken macroprudential policy measures. However, to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of macroprudential policy actions in managing with financial cycles and to design an optimal policy mix with regards to monetary policy, the BoM plans to enhance its technical capacity on macroprudential policy analysis and systemic risk assessment. In this regard, the BoM seeks a consulting firm which is specialized in the area of macroprudential policy and DSGE modeling and has experience in developing DSGE models with financial sector and macroprudential policy instruments in a developing country like Mongolia.

B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT

Main objectives of this assignment are to develop an open economy DSGE model with financial frictions, that is ready to be used for analyzing potential impact of macroprudential policy actions on both the macroeconomic and financial sector indicators and to train the staff on assessing macro-financial linkages and channels of stress scenarios. The model must be tailored to reflect peculiarities of Mongolian economy and financial sector. That is to say, the model should include shock of commodity export volume, commodity price shocks, fiscal policy shock, financial dollarization and preferably FDI shock. In addition, this project is intended to build the capacity of the Monetary Policy Department in assessing channels and impact of stress in the financial system on overall macroeconomic condition of Mongolia.

C. SCOPE OF WORK

The Consulting firm will execute the following tasks but not limited to:

1. Initial work and model preparation

  1. Examining Mongolia’s financial reporting and regulatory frameworks.
  2. Getting acquainted with data on macroeconomic and financial indicators, with greater emphasis on credit flow, interest rates, credit loss, NPL, bank capital and capital adequacy ratio, and past monetary and macroprudential policy measures.
  3. Preparing the core DSGE model for a small open economy that is dependent on commodity exports and FDI. In addition, the core model should include a fiscal policy block.

2. Training the MPD staff on operating DSGE models with financial frictions:

  1. Building a generic core DSGE model for a small open commodity-exporting economy that is dependent on FDI, commodity prices and external demand.
  2. Workshop on designing and building a DSGE model for financial stability and macroprudential policy, with emphasis on modeling endogenous credit and deposit creation, credit risk and portfolio performance, and bank capital and capital regulation.
  3. Supporting the MPD staff in completing a full and consistent data background for the model and collecting and examining stylized facts for Mongolia’s economy.
  4. Basic calibration exercises on steady state comparative statics and dynamic responses of the model.
  5. Providing technical assignments for the staff and follow-up post-mission support.

3. Augmenting the DSGE model with financial frictions to Mongolia stylized facts, conducting calibration exercises and introducing real world complexities. Training the MPD staff in operating the model.  

  1. Augmenting the structure of the model to incorporate Mongolia specific macro and financial aspects.
  2. Training the staff on advanced calibration exercises on steady state and on non-linear functions.
  3. Workshop on building, solving and simulating models with substantial nonlinearities.
  4. Training on macroprudential policy and modeling different types of policy instruments.
  5. Workshop on Mongolia-specific pro-active macroprudential policy scenarios to tackle boom-bust cycles in the macro-financial environment driven by variety of shocks. (Macroprudential policy scenarios should include countercyclical buffers, conservation buffers, LTV caps and liquidity constraints, and shocks should include foreign capital flow, commodity prices, external demand, fiscal policy, monetary policy etc...)
  6. Providing assignments for the staff and follow-up through post-mission support.

4. Building capacity of the Monetary Policy Department in assessing channels and impact of stress in the financial system on overall macroeconomic condition of Mongolia.

  1. Designing basic version of Mongolia’s aggregate bank balance sheet performance block into New-Keynesian structural ‘gap’ models in consideration of stock and flows of credit, bank profit and loss models, bank capital level and capital adequacy ratio (and other regulatory ratios and measures).
  2. Defining linkage between bank aggregate balance sheet performance block with real economic activities.
  3. Setting up long-term filters for macroeconomic and financial sector data (potential growth, credit-GDP ratio, NAIRU, equilibrium exchange rate, bank capital comfort zone etc.)
  4. Workshop on calibrating, estimating and validating the linkage consistent with the data and conducting basic simulation exercises.
  5. Workshop on introducing real world complexities and conducting practical stress scenarios for policy makers: Direct, reverse and worst-case stress scenarios, prevention, resolution. Communicating stress scenarios with policy makers and public.
  6. Follow-up on Client’s comments through post-mission support;

D. DELIVERABLES

The international consulting firm shall deliver the following final deliverables in English and get approval from the Client:

  1. Functional Matlab codes and files on the final DSGE model, programs and other tools used for macroprudential policy scenarios;
  2. Functional Matlab codes and files on technical assessment of channels and impact of stress in the financial system on overall macroeconomic condition (including scripts on calibration, simulation, data handling, and reporting);
  3. Technical documentation report of the DSGE model structure and its properties (calibration of coefficients, assumptions, simulation and impulse responses)
  4. Technical documentation report defining the technical link between bank balance sheet and real economic activities (assumptions, calibration, estimation, data handling and reporting) and details of stress simulations on macro-financial stability;
  5. Staff training materials and presentations;
  6. Files and e-mails shared through post-mission/off-site support.

E. CONSULTANT’S QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA

International consulting firm:

The consulting firm should meet the following requirements:

  • At least 7-10 years of relevant professional experience in undertaking analysis and studies in the area of macroprudential policy, DSGE modeling and macro-financial linkages; 
  • Previous experience of working on similar projects for Mongolia’s case or with central banks in small open economies would be highly preferable;
  • Technical and managerial capabilities of the firm;
  • Qualifications of key staff (with proven technical expertise and experience in the field of the assignment);
  • Familiarity with Mongolian macroeconomic condition and data availability;   

The international consulting firm’s team shall consist of at least two international consultants. The international consulting firm can set up team structure under the proposed budget.

Team leader/International consultant with proficiency in developing structural models with macro-financial linkages:

  • At least a graduate degree in economics or mathematics;
  • At least six years of professional experience in developing macroeconomic structural models, with specific experience in DSGE;
  • Working experience with clients of different levels of technical expertise under the fast paced and complex environment;
  • Excellent proficiency in spoken and written English.

International consultant with proficiency in developing structural models with macro-financial linkages:

  • At least a graduate degree in economics or mathematics;
  • At least 3 years of professional experience in developing macroeconomic structural models;
  • Working experience with clients of different levels of technical expertise under the fast paced and complex environment;
  • Excellent proficiency in spoken and written English.

F. SUPERVISION AND REPORTING

The consulting firm will report directly to the Director General of Monetary Policy Department of the BOM and will work on technical matters related to the assignment on a day-to-day basis with the officials appointed by the Director General. During the assignment period, the consultant will hold three on-site missions totaling 25 working days and provide off-site support in the remainder of the duration. Division of project tasks between the three on-site missions and its schedule should be discussed with and confirmed by the Client. All information provided to the consulting firm will be regarded as confidential and not be shared with any outside individuals or organizations. Each consultant will sign on the Confidentiality Statement, provided by the BOM, which specifies the legal responsibilities regarding confidentiality.

G. CONTRACT DURATION

Total duration of the consultancy service is estimated to be 12 months (25 working days of two consultants each, plus preparation and post-mission days). The assignment is expected to commence in January 2020. The consultancy service will consist of two two-week missions, and one one-week mission on-site and off-site support for the Client during the contract duration.

Interested consulting firm should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualifications and relevant experience to perform the Services. 

Please submit the following documents no later than 17:00, January 20, 2020:

1. Letter of Expressions of Interest;
2. Company introduction along with a copy of state registration certificate;

3. Audited financial statements for 2017 and 2018;
4. Evidence of specific experience and qualification information of the firm relevant to the assignment.

Expressions of Interest should be clearly marked “International consulting firm for Developing DSGE Model with Financial Sector and Element of Macroprudential Policy, Reference number: SFFSP/C5/CS/11”.

The submitted documents will not be returned to the applicants. Please be noted that incomplete applications would not be considered for evaluation. Only selected candidate will be contacted.

Address for submission of Expression of Interest: Attention to Ms.Bayarmaa L, Procurement Specialist, Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Stability Project, Address: Room #204, Negdsen undestnii 8/2, 4th khoroo, Chingeltei District, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Tel: 70120582 or via email to: procurement@sffs.mn.

Холбоо барих

70120582

Хавсралт

СҮҮЛД ЗАРЛАСАН ЗАР
25/CS/003 Улсын төсвийн хөрөнгө оруулалтаар шинээр хэрэгжүүлэх төслүүдийн эдийн засаг, санхүүгийн шинжилгээнд ашиглагдах салбаруудын ажил, үйлчилгээний стандартыг боловсруулан батлуулахад Сангийн яаманд дэмжлэг үзүүлэх дотоод зөвлөх сонгон шалгаруулна

Дуусах огноо: 2020-03-02 17:00:00   Зарласан огноо: 2020-02-18

Захиалагч: Сангийн яам

Төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ


SGM/24/CS/001 Болзошгүй өр төлбөрийн бүх хэлбэр, хэрэгслийг тодорхойлж, үнэлгээний тодорхой аргачлалыг тодорхойлох үндэсний зөвлөх сонгон шалгаруулна

Дуусах огноо: 2020-02-17 17:00:00   Зарласан огноо: 2020-02-03

Захиалагч: Сангийн яам

Төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ


B22/GO/003 Procurement of Server and Network devices

Дуусах огноо: 2020-02-17 11:00:00   Зарласан огноо: 2020-01-31

Захиалагч: Сангийн яам

Төрөл: Бараа


B13/GO/001 Гарын авлага хэвлүүлэх

Дуусах огноо: 2020-01-27 17:00:00   Зарласан огноо: 2020-01-15

Захиалагч: Сангийн яам

Төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ


C5/CS/11 Макро зохистой бодлогын хэрэгслийг нэвтрүүлэн DSGE загвар хөгжүүлэх Олон Улсын зөвлөх компани сонгон шалгаруулна

Дуусах огноо: 2020-01-20 17:00:00   Зарласан огноо: 2020-01-06

Захиалагч: Монголбанк

Төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ


D2/CS/006 National consultant to prepare and finalize draft Social Insurance package laws through determining ways to expand coverage and contribution reduction

Дуусах огноо: 2020-01-03 17:00:00   Зарласан огноо: 2019-12-20

Захиалагч: Сангийн яам

Төрөл: Зөвлөх үйлчилгээ


Бусад зар »